Cadets model flash flooding

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  • U.S. Air Force Academy Public Affairs
U.S. AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. --  Cadets are at work to help Colorado Springs prepare for possible flash flooding in the Douglas Creek Watershed this summer.

In the aftermath of the 2012 Waldo Canyon flooding along Douglas Creek has created a myriad of problems for city planners. Colorado Springs Utilities infrastructure is at risk; people's homes are in danger. Thanks to the Air Force Academy cadets, the Colorado Springs Office of Emergency Management now has another weapon to fight against floods and help residents prepare for the worst.

The group of four cadets adapted a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers hydrology-modeling program that will predict the severity of flash floods based on historical data from the area. The work was part of their senior operations research capstone class project.

Cadets 1st Class Hailey Clinton, Ben Murphy, Jack Neilan and Stefan Zavislan were tasked to find a way to predict flooding based on the severity of the storm. While none has training in hydrology or meteorology, the operations research cadets were able to mastermind a solution for the city.

The group adapted the information based on last year's floods, said Zavislan. After they included information about the strength and severity of rainstorms, the type of soil and coverings, they were able to create a model that will tell emergency responders early on if the storm could result in flooding. The additional warning will allow the city more time to respond and could save property from damage.

"We put in all the data and if the threshold stays below 2,825 cubic-feet-per-second, then there won't be a problem," he said. "That changes if there's sediment - and that's a big danger on Douglas creek - even a foot of sediment drops the threshold by 900 cubic-feet-per-second. In our view, the $2 million the city spent to clean out the channels was money well spent."
Gordon Brenner, fire recovery coordinator for the city, said the cadet's work impressed him.

"I like what I see," he said. "We'll put it to use this summer, see if we can refine the model."

The cadets presented their findings to the Office of Emergency Management on May 7th. Members of the City's Public Works Engineering Department, Flying W Ranch, and the National Weather Service also attended the presentation and are looking forward to using the recommended program during the summer monsoon season.

Next year's crop of seniors could see this project as well. Zavislan said cadets need more research to refine the model and make it as accurate as possible. The group recommended adding rain gauges to determine the rate of rainfall and the duration of the storm to make the model more accurate.

"Sometimes, we have a 10-minute storm that drops one-hour of rain," Brenner said. "This modeling gives us an opportunity to determine if we have a flash flooding threat coming down North Douglas Creek, and warn residents and businesses of the danger."

Cadets said their model could be adapted to meet that requirement.

"We could front-load the data to show that the rain falls more in the front of a storm instead of at the end," Zavislan said. "But we'd really need those rain gauges to make sure it's accurate."